Author Archive

The final July UoM confidence # was slightly better than expected at 67.8 vs the forecast of 67 and is up from the preliminary reading of 66.5 out a few weeks ago but still remains well below the 76 level in June. Economic conditions were down almost 10 pts from June and the Outlook...
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July Chicago PMI was a stronger than expected 62.3 vs the consensus of 56, up from 59.1 and is a 3 month high. New Orders rose 5.5 pts to 64.6, Backlogs rose almost 7 pts to 57.6 and Employment rose 2.2 pts to 56.6. All however are below the level of April but comforting...
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Real Q2 GDP rose 2.4% vs expectations of 2.6% but Nominal GDP was better, up 4.2% vs the forecast of 3.7% as the price deflator rose 1.8%, .7% more than expected. Personal consumption rose 1.6%, which was below the expected gain of 2.4% but gross private investment rose a solid 28.8% led by a...
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When deflation is your view, cut down every tree and print as much money as possible to prevent it, right out of the Fed playbook. Fed Pres Bullard is saying “The US is closer to a Japanese style outcome today than at any time in recent history. A better policy response to a negative...
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Initial Jobless Claims totaled 457k, a touch below expectations of 460k but last week was revised up by 4k to 468k. GM not shutting auto plants as is typical this time of the year is still a distortion but it is surprising that claims aren’t lower because of it and thus current levels still...
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On a closing basis, the Euro is trading at the highest since early May vs the US$ as is the STOXX Europe 600 stock index after July Euro zone Economic Confidence rose to the highest since Mar ‘08, coming in 2 pts above expectations led by both business and consumer confidence. Also, German unemployment...
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June Durable Goods unexpectedly fell both headline and ex transports. Orders fell 1% vs an expected gain of 1% and fell .6% ex transports vs an expected gain of .4%. The core cap ex figure, non defense capital goods ex aircraft, though was a bright spot as they rose .6% after a 4.6% rise...
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Following the 5 mo low in the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index where the survey cutoff date was July 21st, the weekly ABC confidence poll fell 3 pts to -48, the lowest since Apr and is now below the 1 yr average of -46. The drop was led by the Personal Finance component which...
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To put today’s 10 yr note yield of 3.11% into perspective and its huge relevance, taking out the sharp drop in interest rates in late ‘08, early ‘09 due to the obvious financial collapse fear flight to safety trade, the last time the 10 yr bond yield closed at 3.11% was on June 13th,...
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Just when one thought the FOMC couldn’t get more dovish, they get more dovish, specifically on inflation. They toned down the outlook by saying the “economic recovery is proceeding” vs “economic activity has continued to strengthen” in Apr. They referred to the improvement in the labor market as gradual. They took out “housing starts...
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