Across the Curve

I begin my new work enterprise at TD securities in about nine hours. I want to thank everyone for the warm and gracious response to the news. I want to reiterate that the future of the blog is undetermined as I write this. If you desire to establish a professional relationship and bask in my dulcet...
Read more »

I began writing this blog in January 2008 and it has been a far greater success than I had ever dreamed possible. It has been my privilege to inform and illuminate my readers about the daily movements in the fixed income markets and to do so as the greatest financial crisis since the Depression...
Read more »

Heightened concerns about the global banking sector are front and center today. There are two press articles to note.  The first is the FAZ story warning that the two regional banks that hold a majority stake in West LB indicate they are prepared to let the bank become insolvent.  This may be an attempt...
Read more »

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are posting modest gains in overnight trading. We are well into the holiday we and I suspect that trading volumes will be on the light side,notwithstanding the chunky auction of 5 year notes later today. That process should dominate the bond market landscape as dealers put scarce capital at risk. David...
Read more »

Preview: Confidence, home prices, GDP, ASA staffing, FOMC minutes (1) The Conference Board consumer confidence index probably fell again in Nov. That would match the pattern in other measures in early Nov. (2) Home prices have turned upward since Q2, probably reflecting strength in underlying demand, a temporary boost from the homebuyer tax credit, a...
Read more »

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are posting small mixed changes on this day when the Treasury began the process of regurgitating $ 116 billion of securities via sales of 2 year notes, 5 year notes and 7 year notes. In initial trading this morning the curve steepened rather sharply and 2year/10 year reached a cycle...
Read more »

$44B in new 2yr notes come at 0.802% or right on top of 1pm levels. *U.S. AWARDS 44.5% OF 2-YR TO INDIRECT BIDDERS *U.S. TWO-YEAR NOTES BID/COVER RATIO 3.16 AT AUCTION Direct bidders took 4.7% of the auction (well down from last month and back to averages seen before Sept. The Dealer award of 50.8% which is...
Read more »

In a few minutes the Treasury ( for the second time ) will auction the largest batch of 2 year notes issued since man began to walk erect. Traders believe that it will go quite well and expect a stop inside of market levels ( currently 0.80 percent).
Read more »

ONLY ONE REFERENCE TO INTERVENTION WITH A MONETARY FIGURE ATTACHED AND THAT’S HKMA BUYING $300MM U.S. EQUIVALENTS. TAIWAN WAS SAID TO BE IN THE MARKET BUT NO SIZE WAS ATTACHED. THE ECB CONDUCTED A € 5.75 BLN SWAPS WITH THE SWISS NATIONAL BANK TO MAINTAIN LIQUIDITY IN THE SWISS MARKET BUT I AM NOT...
Read more »

With U.S. T-bill yields hovering near zero, today’s weekly bill auctions may attract more general market attention than usual. Here is what is going on:  due to the approaching debt ceiling, the US debt managers have reduced T-bill sales.  At the same time, the demand for short-term paper is great.  First, many medium term...
Read more »